Economist
Oliver’s Insights – Investment cycles – what are they and why you need to be aware of them
22 October
Key points Cyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but get magnified by swings in investor sentiment. Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 10-10-2025
15 October
US and European share markets fell sharply on Friday in response to the latest threatened re-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. The 2.7% fall in US shares after Trump threatened additional tariffs on China left it down 2.4% for...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Bubble trouble – is AI enthusiasm driving a bubble in shares?
9 October
Key points Rich share market valuations are warning of the risk of a pullback in shares amidst fears of a bubble and it’s possible that enthusiasm for AI has run ahead of itself. But the fundamentals behind this are arguably far stronger than...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 03-10-2025
8 October
Share markets rose strongly over the last week, with optimism for further US rate cuts offsetting the start of another US partial government shutdown. For the week US shares rose 1.1%, Eurozone shares rose 2.7%, Japanese shares rose 0.9% and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Medium term investment returns face five key constraints
24 September
Key points Five mega trends still point to risks of a more inflation prone/lower growth environment than pre-pandemic. These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Gold at record highs – can it keep going? Implications for investors
18 September
Key points The gold price has surged to record highs. Key drivers have been central banks increasing their gold reserves, rate cuts, a renewed downtrend in the $US and demand for a hedge against public debt worries and geopolitical...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian growth on the mend – implications for profits and interest rates
11 September
Key points Australia is seeing a gradual economic recovery with growth likely to reach 2.5% next year. This in turn is underpinning a likely upswing in profits. The RBA is expected to cut again in November, February and May to 2.85%, although the...[Read More]
Compound interest and returns are an investor’s best friend
27 August
If there is “one thing” investors should know about investing, it’s the power of compound interest or returns. In the ever-rising obsession with short-term developments impacting investment markets around the economy, interest rates, profits,...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Compound interest and returns are an investor’s best friend
20 August
Key points Compound interest is an investor’s best friend but can be a borrower’s worst nightmare. The higher the return, the earlier and bigger the investment contribution and the longer the period the more it works. To make the most of it,...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Poor Australian productivity – why all the fuss? And what to do about it?
30 July
Key points The last decade has seen productivity stagnate in Australia. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. Policies to boost productivity include: deregulation; more housing supply; a cap on public spending; and tax...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Seven key charts on the state of the Australian property market
23 July
Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than many portray it to be. The Australian housing is cycle is turning up again; falling interest rates are the key driver; along with a chronic undersupply of homes of...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – China – the tariff threat, structural challenges & implications for Australia
23 July
Key points Chinese growth is running around 5% and while threatsremain high – with the property downturn and tariffs – policy stimulus is likely to be enough to keep growth okay. However, longer term structural challenges – around...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA cuts for the third time – expect a further gradual easing to 2.85%
13 August
Key points The RBA cut its cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 3.6%. This is the third rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA sees inflation running around target but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
16 July
Key points The first half of this year saw good returns, but they were interrupted by a correction into April thanks to US tariffs. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but see a high risk of another correction in the next few months. Seven key...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights 2024-25 saw strong investment returns yet again – but is it sustainable?
9 July
Key points While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as...[Read More]